With God’s grace, a ceasefire agreement has been signed today in Gaza, marking the end of the longest and most difficult ordeal for the people of Gaza, which lasted one year and four months, or 466 days.
The question here is: What changed to make this deal possible? What will the outcomes be on the ground? And who emerged as the winner or loser?
First, let us not forget that this war claimed the lives of 46,000 martyrs, including 17,000 children and 12,000 women, while destroying 92% of the infrastructure valued at $18.5 billion (Source 1).
This includes 85% of roads, universities, schools, and hospitals, according to World Bank statistics, in addition to power stations, water facilities, and more (Source 2).
Moreover, over two million people, representing the entire population of Gaza, were displaced, enduring one of the most brutal campaigns of starvation and displacement ever broadcast live to the world (Source 2).
To understand the situation better, let’s go back to the beginning. Why did Hamas attack Israel in the first place, despite knowing that the U.S. and all its allies firmly support Israel?
Without delving into whether Hamas was justified or not, they had four main reasons:
The severe blockade on Gaza and its near-total dependency on aid (Sources 3, 4).
The recent normalization between Arab governments and Israel, weakening the Palestinian cause as a whole (Sources 3, 4).
Israel’s intensified pressure on Jerusalem, land appropriation, and settlement expansion (Sources 3, 4).
Lastly, the 10,300 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, with Hamas seeking to exchange them for Israeli captives (Sources 3, 4).
However, the October 7, 2023, attack, known as the "Al-Aqsa Flood," turned out to be a golden opportunity for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He had been surrounded by corruption cases and was on the verge of imprisonment, just like his predecessor Ehud Olmert (Sources 5, 6).
The global Zionist propaganda machine went into full swing, portraying the attack as akin to the Holocaust. U.S. reports even accused Hamas of horrific actions, such as killing children and raping women, despite the lack of a single piece of photographic evidence (Source 7).
On October 18, 2023, U.S. President Joe Biden visited Israel, giving Netanyahu the green light and full blessing for a comprehensive offensive aimed at eradicating Hamas completely (Source 8).
Yet, a year and a half later, Hamas remains strong. In fact, recent months have seen Hamas inflicting heavier losses on the Israeli army than during its peak at the beginning of the war (Source 9).
A new report from The Wall Street Journal reveals that Hamas has regained and even surpassed its lost manpower, thanks to "The Shadow Man," Mohammed Al-Sinwar (Source 10).
Al-Sinwar, a 50-year-old Qassam commander, was the architect behind the 2006 abduction of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, who was released in 2011 in exchange for 1,027 Palestinian prisoners, including his brother, Yahya Al-Sinwar (Source 10).
It is widely believed that Mohammed Al-Sinwar is now the overall leader of Hamas after disagreements prevented the appointment of a new political head. Instead, a temporary committee of five members was formed, with Khaled Meshaal being the most prominent member announced (Source 11).
Al-Sinwar has successfully recruited and trained a large number of new fighters. According to The Wall Street Journal, the tunnel network remains operational, providing shelter and high-morale training facilities far superior to those of the Israeli army, whose soldiers now lack motivation to continue the war (Source 10).
On the other hand, Hamas fighters view death as equal to life, given the conditions in Gaza, where bombing, sniper fire, and drone strikes are preceded by hunger, cold, and disease (Source 12).
Another crucial factor was the pressure exerted by Donald Trump. His Middle East envoy, Steven Witkoff, delivered a clear message to Netanyahu: “Accept the deal and end the war, or you will find yourself isolated and abandoned” (Source 13).
Despite Trump’s notorious brashness and low moral standards, he remains one of the most transparent U.S. presidents, openly voicing what he thinks without political pretense. Recently, he even shared a video of a U.S. senator harshly criticizing Netanyahu, calling it foolish to tie the interests of a superpower like America to the personal agenda of someone like Netanyahu (Sources 14, 15).
Trump’s stance is driven by the financial drain and massive economic waste caused by the Gaza war, which contradicts his primary agenda: solving America’s economic problems and ensuring prosperity for its citizens (Source 15).
The deal’s terms include ending the war, the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces, the maximum facilitation of humanitarian aid, the release of 30-50 Palestinian prisoners for every Israeli captive, and the comprehensive reconstruction of Gaza with unlimited international funding (Source 16).
In conclusion, who won? According to Netanyahu’s own ministers, who have turned against him and may soon dismantle his coalition, Hamas emerged victorious. They were not eliminated as Netanyahu promised. New leaders replaced the old ones, while Israel faces withdrawal, accusations of war crimes against its top officials, and a shattered global image of the "Chosen People" that will take decades to repair.
Thank you to everyone who wrote, spoke up, and exerted pressure during this war. Nothing went in vain, and, God willing, the future will be brighter. Congratulations to our people in Gaza.
References:
1. Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics. (n.d.). Retrieved January 15, 2025, from https://www.pcbs.gov.ps/site/lang__ar/1405/Default.aspx
2. The World Bank. (2024, April 2). Joint World Bank-UN report assesses damage to Gaza’s infrastructure. Retrieved January 15, 2025, from https://www.albankaldawli.org/ar/news/press-release/2024/04/02/joint-world-bank-un-report-assesses-damage-to-gaza-s-infrastructure
3. BBC News. (n.d.). Retrieved January 15, 2025, from https://www.bbc.com/arabic/articles/c4n6d1jjlyeo
4. Al Jazeera. (2023, October 10). Why and how did Hamas execute its operations? Retrieved January 15, 2025, from https://www.aljazeera.net/politics/2023/10/10/%D9%85%D9%88%D9%82%D8%B9-%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A-%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B0%D8%A7-%D9%88%D9%83%D9%8A%D9%81-%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B0%D8%AA-%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B3
5. BBC News. (n.d.). Retrieved January 15, 2025, from https://www.bbc.com/arabic/middleeast-43063029
6. Al Arabiya. (2017, June 25). This is the man behind the wars in Lebanon and Gaza. Retrieved January 15, 2025, from https://www.alarabiya.net/social-media/2017/06/25/%D9%87%D8%B0%D8%A7-%D9%87%D9%88-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D8%AC%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B0%D9%8A-%D8%B4%D9%86-%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A-%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%88%D8%BA%D8%B2%D8%A9
7. NBC News. (n.d.). UN finds clear, convincing information on hostages raped in Gaza. Retrieved January 15, 2025, from https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/un-finds-clear-convincing-information-hostages-raped-gaza-rcna141789
8. The White House. (2023, October 18). What they are saying: President Biden visits Israel following Hamas terrorist attacks. Retrieved January 15, 2025, from https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/18/what-they-are-saying-president-biden-visits-israel-following-hamas-terrorist-attacks/
9. Al Jazeera. (2025, January 13). Israel tallies its dead in Gaza: Key operations highlighted. Retrieved January 15, 2025, from https://www.aljazeera.net/news/2025/1/13/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AD%D8%AA%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%84-%D9%8A%D8%AD%D8%B5%D9%8A-%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%87-%D8%A8%D8%BA%D8%B2%D8%A9-%D8%A3%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%B2-%D8%B9%D9%85%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA
10. Wall Street Journal. (n.d.). Hamas has another Sinwar, and he’s rebuilding. Retrieved January 15, 2025, from https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-has-another-sinwar-and-hes-rebuilding-0a16031d
11. La Croix International. (n.d.). War in the Middle East: Hamas to be led temporarily by a committee. Retrieved January 15, 2025, from https://international.la-croix.com/world/war-in-the-middle-east-hamas-to-be-led-temporarily-by-a-committee
12. ProPublica. (n.d.). Biden and Blinken face human rights criticisms over Israel-Gaza response. Retrieved January 15, 2025, from https://www.propublica.org/article/biden-blinken-state-department-israel-gaza-human-rights-horrors
13. Haaretz. (2025, January 13). Trump’s envoy forced Netanyahu to accept Gaza plan he repeatedly rejected. Retrieved January 15, 2025, from https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-01-13/ty-article/.premium/trumps-mideast-envoy-forced-netanyahu-to-accept-a-gaza-plan-he-repeatedly-rejected/00000194-615c-d4d0-a1f4-fbfdce850000
14. The Guardian. (2025, January 8). Trump video makes crude reference to Netanyahu. Retrieved January 15, 2025, from https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/08/trump-video-crude-reference-netanyahu
15. Brookings Institution. (n.d.). President Trump’s ultimate deal to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Retrieved January 15, 2025, from https://www.brookings.edu/articles/president-trumps-ultimate-deal-to-end-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict/
16. NBC News. (n.d.). Ceasefire announced between Israel and Hamas. Retrieved January 15, 2025, from https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ceasefire-israel-hamas-gaza-palestinians-rcna160847