The news about Hamas leaders being expelled from Qatar is surprising, but unfortunately, given the current and past information, it seems largely true.
Al Jazeera (Qatar-based) published a report saying that "Qatar has concluded that the Hamas political office in Doha no longer serves its purpose."
The Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded, saying that the withdrawal from negotiations and expulsion is "inaccurate." This isn’t a full denial since the correct phrase would have been "not true."
Yesterday, CNN also confirmed this, reporting that about 10 days ago, Qatar informed Hamas leaders that they were no longer welcome. The reason was a "direct request from the U.S."
Since April, Qatar has faced intense pressure in Congress, led by Democratic Congressman Steny Hoyer, aimed at pushing for the release of hostages.
The direct threat to Qatar was a review of its status as a U.S. ally, which is a serious matter. If the U.S. declares that a country is no longer an ally and removes its protection, it’s almost a green light for regime change or a signal for opportunists.
At that time, Qatar responded through its Washington embassy, saying that it’s just a mediator and has no leverage over either Hamas or Israel.
Since then, Hamas leaders have visited several countries, exploring the possibility of relocating their political office. The options were Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, and Oman.
Iraq was the most welcoming, mainly due to strong Iranian support. However, the faction led by Mashal wasn’t keen, while Sinwar’s group was more open to it.
The key question remains: What is the path of the negotiations? Will the expulsion of Hamas affect this? And what is the fate of the people in Gaza?
The negotiations went through four stages in 2024: March in Cairo, May in Doha, July in Cairo/Doha, and August in Doha.
The main disagreement is that Hamas wants Israel to withdraw from Gaza gradually, while Israel doesn’t want to leave. There’s some flexibility, however, regarding the exchange of hostages and prisoners.
As for reconstruction, it usually proceeds smoothly, and conditions in Gaza tend to improve because donations from countries and wealthy individuals are generous.
So, what are the obstacles? The first and biggest hurdle is Netanyahu. The Gaza war is like a lifeline for him; he’s willing to sacrifice anything to keep the situation tense.
If things calm down, Netanyahu risks prosecution and could end up in jail, just like former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, as the laws in Israel don’t show mercy, even if you’re a war hero.
The second point, which is also important, is the weakened influence of the U.S. after the presidential elections. For three months during the transition period, the current administration’s power is limited.
During this time, countries may outwardly agree with the current U.S. administration but actually wait for the new administration’s decisions and policies.
What’s the political outlook for the new U.S. administration? Trump is not a war-focused leader; he’s a highly successful businessman who calculates based on profit and loss.
It’s unlikely he will continue a costly war that drains the U.S. economy with aid spending. He’s very skilled in making deals.
Anyone who reads his famous book The Art of the Deal would know that he might try to secure Netanyahu’s position but would not prolong the war. He could go for a major strike on Gaza or skip it altogether.
However, the issue of leaving Gaza and who will manage it will be a matter of much debate, especially since there’s no strong alternative to Hamas.
If Hamas is expelled and weakened or loses its diplomatic cover, the alternative could be direct occupation, with Israeli settlements expanding across Gaza and dividing different areas.
In the end, everyone is praying for relief for the people of Gaza, hoping they can return to a decent life, free from bombing, destruction, blockade, and the need for aid.